2024 Ghana Elections Constituency Watch Series: Adentan Constituency
Written by Justin Tusoe
Ghana goes to the polls on December 7,
2024, to elect a president and Members of Parliament (MPs) for the 276
constituencies across the country. Ahead of the elections, one of the key
constituencies which has attracted attention is the Adentan Constituency. The
Adentan Constituency remains one of the key battlegrounds in Ghana’s political
landscape. Since its creation in 2004, no Member of Parliament (MP) has been
re-elected. The NDC has won the parliamentary elections three times while the
NPP has won it twice. As the polls draw closer, the race is heating up, with
the incumbent MP, Hon. Mohammed Adamu Ramadan facing a fierce contest from Deputy
CEO of the National Youth Authority (NYA), Akosua Manu. This article analyses
the performance of both parties in the presidential and parliamentary elections,
aiming to provide readers with an in-depth understanding of the electoral
dynamics in the Adentan Constituency.
About the Adentan Constituency
The Adentan Constituency is a fast-growing peri-urban constituency in the Greater Accra Region, with a population of about 237,546 according to the 2021 Population and Housing Census. It has 12 electoral areas, with a voter population of about 110,573. It was carved out of the Ashaiman Constituency prior to the 2004 presidential and parliamentary elections. It shares boundaries with the Ayawaso West Wuogon, Madina, Ashaiman, and Dome-Kwabenya Constituencies. Some of the popular communities within the constituency include New Legon, Adjiringanor, Ashaley Botwe, Nanakrom, Ogbojo, Trassaco, etc.
Dynamics of Parliamentary Elections in the
Adentan Constituency
The Adentan Constituency, created in 2004, has been nicknamed a "one-term constituency" as no MP has ever retained their seat, although the NDC won it consecutively in 2008 and 2012 with two different candidates. The graph below shows the performance trends of NDC and NPP parliamentary candidates from 2004 to 2020.
Source: Author’s Computation, data from EC
In 2004, Kwadwo Opare-Hammond (late)
clinched victory for the NPP with 49.10% of the votes, defeating the NDC
candidate who pulled 46.6% of valid votes. Opare-Hammond served Adentan in the
4th Parliament from 2005 to 2009.
However, he lost the 2008 elections to the
NDC candidate Kojo Adu Asare, who secured a convincing win with about 52.6% of
the votes, representing Adenta in the 5th Parliament from 2009 to 2013.
In 2011, Emmanuel Ashimore Moore defeated
Kojo Adu Asare in the NDC primaries and won the 2012 elections, serving in the
6th Parliament from 2013 to 2017.
Moore however lost the 2015 NDC primaries
to Mohammed Adamu Ramadan, who represented the party in the 2016 elections.
Adamu Ramadan lost the election to Yaw Buabeng Asamoa, the former
Communications Director of the NPP. Buabeng Asamoa garnered 50.6% of the votes
compared to Adamu Ramadan who pulled 48.6%.
In 2020, both Adamu Ramadan and Buabeng Asamoa
were elected to represent their parties again. This time, however, Adamu Ramadan
emerged victorious with 55.9% of the valid votes, defeating Buabeng Asamoa, who
secured 43.4%.
Overall, the NDC has won the seat three times (2008, 2012, and 2020), while the NPP has won twice (2004 and 2016).
Who Wins the Seat in 2024?
Ahead of the 2024 elections, the NDC and
the NPP have already elected their parliamentary candidates.
The NDC has re-elected the incumbent MP, Mohammed
Adamu Ramadan, as their parliamentary candidate. He is the son of a former
National Chairperson of the PNC Ahmed Ramadan and an elder brother to the
Second Lady Samira Bawumia. He was also a Presidential Staffer from 2013 to
2017. This will be the third time he will represent the party in the
parliamentary elections, having done so in 2016 and 2020.
The NPP on the other hand, has elected
Akosua Manu as the parliamentary candidate for the Adentan Constituency. Akosua
Manu is the Deputy CEO of the National Youth Authority (NYA). Prior to this
position, she was a Deputy Director of Communication at the Office of the First
Lady, Rebecca Akufo-Addo.
With the stage now set for a “showdown,”
the big question remains, who will emerge as the winner? Will the people of the
Adentan Constituency change or continue with their historical pattern of voting?
Finding answers to these questions will be
challenging; however, a survey by Global Info Analytics found that about 62%
of respondents in the constituency said the incumbent MP has performed well,
with about 56%
believing he can secure re-election. If this survey is anything to go by, then Mr
Adamu Ramadan will make history by being the first MP to retain his seat since the
constituency was created in 2004.
However, even if Adamu Ramadan does not retain
his seat, history will be made in the Adentan Constituency. A victory for
Akosua Manu would make her the first female to win the seat since its creation
in 2004.
Dynamics of Presidential Elections in the
Adentan Constituency
Unlike the parliamentary elections, which
do not show a clear leaning towards a particular party, the presidential
elections in the Adentan Constituency have shown a slight dominance by the NDC
since it was created in 2004.
The graph below shows the presidential
election performance of the NDC and the NPP across the five electoral cycles (2004,
2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020). It highlights the fact that although the NDC lost
the 2004 presidential elections, it won in the Adentan Constituency with 49.6% of
the votes compared to the NPP which pulled 49.2%. Similarly, the NDC maintained
its dominance in 2008 and 2012, securing 53.3% in both elections, while the NPP
garnered 44.9% and 46% of the votes, respectively.
The only outlier happened in 2016 when the NPP defeated the NDC in the constituency with about 51.4% of the votes; however, the NDC recaptured the constituency in the 2020 elections, securing about 53.4% of the votes.
Source: Author’s Computation, data from EC
Conclusion
Based on the historical data presented, the Adentan Constituency has
shown a tendency to favour the NDC in presidential elections, except for 2016
when the NPP emerged victorious. The performance of the parties in the parties
in the parliamentary elections has been mixed, with the NDC winning three times
while the NDC won twice.
In the 2024 elections, electorates in the constituency
are likely to scrutinize candidates based on their records, promises, and
alignment with local priorities. As constituents weigh their options for whom
to vote for, issues
such as infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and job creation are
likely to feature prominently in their considerations.
The outcome of both presidential and parliamentary elections will depend on how well candidates address these concerns and resonate with the aspirations of the electorates.
Edited by Peter Agbesi Adivor and Harriet Ofori
Follow the the 2024 Ghanaian Election on Twitter @Ghanaelections and Facebook @Ghana Post-Elections.
