Akwatia By-election: What are the stakes?

By Ofosu Stephen Tutu

The Akwatia constituency prepares for one of the most closely watched by-elections in recent memory. On Tuesday, September 2, 2025, voters will head to the polls to elect a new member of parliament following the untimely death of Ernest Yaw Kumi on July 7, 2025 at the age of 40.

Ernest Kumi, who represented the New Patriotic Party (NPP), had secured victory in the December 2024 parliamentary elections with 52.83% of the vote, defeating the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate Henry Boakye Yiadom, who garnered 47.17%.

However, his path to Parliament House was anything but smooth. The election result was disputed. Kumi found himself embroiled in legal battles when he defied an interim injunction from the Koforidua High Court that barred him from being sworn in as MP. This act of defiance led to a contempt of court conviction and an arrest warrant. The legal drama continued until June 2025, when the Supreme Court of Ghana overturned his contempt conviction, clearing his name just weeks before his death.

In accordance with Article 112(5) of the 1992 Constitution, as amended, the Electoral Commission has scheduled the September 2 by-election to fill the vacant seat. The contest will unfold in a constituency known for its electoral volatility. Since 1992, the NPP has held a narrow edge over the NDC in parliamentary elections in Akwatia, winning the seat five times while the NDC won only 4 times making it one of Ghana's most competitive political battlegrounds.

Located in the Denkyembour District of the Eastern Region, Akwatia's political significance extends beyond its 52,328 registered voters. This diamond-mining hub has earned a reputation as an electoral hotspot, with a history marked by intense political rivalry and, at times, violence. As the D-day approaches, two candidates have emerged to contest the seat as NPP seeks to bolster its paltry parliamentary numbers and the NDC seeks to increase its war chest of two-thirds parliamentary seats. The candidates are Solomon Kwame Asumadu of the NPP and Bernard Bediako Baidoo, a private legal practitioner representing the NDC.

Security Concerns: Lessons from Recent Electoral Violence

Fears of violence during the Akwatia by- election have prompted security agencies to learn from recent problems at Ablekuma North constituency. In response to these concerns, the Ghana Police Service has deployed 600 personnel to the constituency to ensure a safe and secure voting environment.

However, this deployment has sparked debate among political observers and residents, with some questioning whether the number is adequate given Akwatia's volatile electoral history and reputation as a political hotspot. The seriousness of the security situation became evident in recent weeks when the Eastern Regional Police Command intensified its pre-election operations. In a series of targeted interventions, law enforcement officers arrested ten suspects and retrieved some weapons during separate security sweeps across the constituency. These operations underscore the very real security challenges that have prompted authorities to take unprecedented measures. Adding to the gravity of the situation, the National Commission on Small Arms and Light Weapons has declared Akwatia a "no-go area" for weapons, implementing strict restrictions on arms movement in and around the constituency. This designation reflects the commission's assessment of the potential for violence and its commitment to preventing the proliferation of weapons that could escalate tensions.

An Unprecedented Super Majority?

The National Democratic Congress currently holds an overwhelming parliamentary advantage, with 183 seats compared to the New Patriotic Party's 88. The decision by the independent MPs to caucus with the ruling party has given them commanding two-thirds majority. While another NDC victory in Akwatia would not significantly alter the balance of power in Parliament, both parties are determined not to concede any ground.

The NDC's Early Dominance (1992-1996)

The constituency's electoral journey began in 1992 when NDC's Gilbert Kwasi Agyei won the seat unopposed. This uncontested victory resulted from the NPP's boycott of the 1992 general elections, immediately establishing the NDC as the constituency's dominant force.

The NDC's grip on the seat was tested but strengthened in 1996 during the first competitive election. Alhaji Mohammed Erzuah Siam of the NDC decisively defeated Francis A.Y. Agyare-Bray of the NPP, securing 57.31% of the votes against Francis 33.11%. This overwhelming victory coincided with Rawlings' re-election and reflected strong rural support for the NDC, cementing the party's early dominance in the constituency.

The NPP Breakthrough (2000-2004)

As Jerry John Rawlings concluded his eight-year tenure, winds of political change swept across Ghana. The NPP's Kinston Akomeng Kissi captured the seat for the first time, defeating Ahmed Baba Jamal Mohammed of the NDC.  Kinston won the seat with 48.90% and Baba Jamal took the second place with 42.75%. The NPP consolidated their position in 2004, with Kinston Akomeng Kissi retaining the seat in a much closer contest. He secured 52.20% as against NDC’s Baba Jamal’s 47.08%, equalizing the score at two wins each for both parties.

The NDC's Narrow Returns (2008-2012)

The 2008 parliamentary elections marked the NDC's comeback, though not without drama. Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed reclaimed the seat for the NDC against the NPP's Kofi Asare. However, irregularities necessitated re-runs at six polling stations on August 18, 2009. The 2012 contest proved even tighter. Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed narrowly retained the seat for the NDC against his previous opponent, Kofi Asare of the NPP. With a slim margin of just 557 votes, Baba Jamal won with 20,471 votes (50.44%) while Kofi Asare secured 19,914 (49.07%).

The NPP's Recent Resurgence (2016-2024)

The NPP dramatically reclaimed the constituency in 2016 when Mercy Adu-Gyamfi (popularly known as Ama Sey) delivered a crushing defeat to the NDC's Baba Jamal. Ama Sey secured a commanding 57.21% of the vote against Baba Jamal's 42.45%, the largest NPP victory in Akwatia's electoral history.

However, the NDC's resilience was evident in the 2020 elections when Henry Yiadom Boakye reclaimed the seat for his party. He narrowly defeated the NPP's Ernest Yaw Kumi, securing 51.50% of the vote compared to Kumi's 48.50%, demonstrating once again the constituency's competitive nature and capacity for political alternatio

The seat swung back to the NPP in 2024 when Ernest Yaw Kumi reversed his 2020 defeat. Kumi secured victory with 52.83% of the vote against the NDC's Henry Boakye Yiadom, who garnered 47.17%, giving the NPP their fifth overall victory in the constituency since 1992 and setting the stage for the current by-election following Kumi's untimely death.

The chart below shows the fierce electoral battle and the alternation of power witnessed by Akwatia since 1992.

Source: African Elections Project

Who wins the By-election?

The winner of the by-election could be a tough call with the NDC’s economic performance since taking office in January 2025 tilting things in their favor while sympathy may also favor the NPP as they grieve from the loss of Ernest Kumi alongside the election. However, polls from Ghana’s prolific pollster, Global Info Analytics puts the NDC ahead in this race, giving them a 53% lead ahead of NPP’s 47%. 

Reviewed by: Peter Agbesi Adivor